When you see headlines about geopolitical tensions and how the stock market sold off on the news, it can feel unsettling, especially when it comes to your hard-earned savings. But what you might not hear about in the news is what the charts are indicating.
Look at what happened in the stock market recently. On Friday, investors were bracing for a rocky start this week, expecting geopolitical tensions to shake up the stock market. That’s not what unfolded. After Friday’s +1% dip, the U.S. indexes bounced back, starting the week off on a positive note. It just goes to show how quickly things can shift, and often, not in the way we might anticipate.
A Closer Look at the S&P 500
The S&P 500 ($SPX) looks like it’s back on track and attempting to move toward its all-time high. Volatility has also retreated, and oil prices, which went as high as $77.62 a barrel, have pulled back to slightly above $71.
Think of it this way: if you took Friday’s price action out of the equation, the S&P 500 has been moving steadily by grinding out its narrow range sideways move. The uptrend in equities is still in play, despite the Middle East conflict.
The StockCharts Market Summary page shows that the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite ($COMPQ) are trading well above their 200-day simple moving averages (SMA), while the Dow Industrials ($INDU) is struggling to remain above the benchmark. Small-cap stocks continue to struggle, which suggests that growth leadership continues to be on investors’ radars. You can see this in the sector performance panel, which shows Technology in the lead.
Since tech stocks make up a significant portion of the S&P 500, let’s take a closer look at the daily chart.
FIGURE 1. DAILY CHART OF S&P 500. The week started off on a positive note despite Middle East tensions. Monitor trends, key levels, and momentum indicators.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.
As mentioned earlier, not much has happened in the S&P 500 despite Friday’s selloff. The overall uptrend is still in place. The index is trading above its 21-day exponential moving average. The S&P 500 is about 1.84% away from its all-time high.
However, even though the bias is slightly bullish, there are indications that the market’s momentum isn’t strong at the moment. Here’s why:
- The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is faltering, indicating momentum isn’t quite there yet. Note the RSI is not moving higher with the index, meaning it’s diverging.
- The Percentage Price Oscillator (PPO) has been relatively flat and sloping slightly downward since the end of May. This confirms the stalling momentum indicated by the RSI.
- The 200-day SMA is above the 50-day SMA. The 50-day SMA needs to cross above the 200-day SMA to confirm the bullish bias.
What to Watch
Keeping the trend direction and momentum in mind, here are some levels to monitor on the chart.
- Just below 6150: This area represents the S&P 500’s all-time high. If the index reaches this level, it will likely be met with resistance. A break above this level would elevate bullish sentiment and show upside momentum in the market.
- Between 5950 and 6050: The S&P 500 has been moving within this range for most of the month. It almost seems as if it’s waiting for something to act as a catalyst to move it in either direction. When it happens, the RSI and PPO will indicate whether momentum is to the upside or downside.
- The 5775 area: This level represents the March 24 to March 26 high and the May 12 and May 23 lows. A break below this level would not be bullish for the S&P 500. Note that the 200-day SMA is close to this level.
The Bottom Line
The stock market always has its ups and downs, and some days may feel more uncertain than others. However, by focusing on long-term trends and support or resistance levels based on past highs and lows, you can approach your investment decisions with a more objective mindset.
Instead of reacting to news headlines, consider adding the “lines in the sand” — key support and resistance levels, trendlines, price channels — to your charts. These can be added to daily, weekly, or monthly time frames. Monitoring the market’s action at these levels can offer valuable insights and better prepare you for whatever comes your way.
Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.